Why We Prepare

The vast majority of society, if they are even aware of the prepper movement, view preppers as borderline paranoids.  Rural folk clinging to their guns and bibles.   They are viewed as “preparing” for a future that will not come.  There is even a television program dedicated to the phenomena.  Mockingly called “Doomsday Preppers”, its viewers are divided between those filled with either distain or praise.

 

The origins and recent growth of the prepper movement reveal a different story.  Often in the past, people have often sought to hoard supplies against perceived risks that others found foolish.  However, the modern prepper movement is different.  The size of the movement, and the varied reasons for preparing refute the idea that it is the result of a mass psychosis or hysteria.

 

The fact is that millions of people in the Anglosphere and beyond have independently come to the conclusion that it is important to have some vital supplies on hand in case of emergency is undeniable.  There is a mass consciousness at work, but it is not based on paranoia or hysteria.  It is based on a conscious and unconscious analysis of available data.

 

It is an undeniable fact of life that everyone who depends on others, or civilization, for food, water, and energy will, at some time, experience a denial of these goods.  Floods, earthquakes, electrical, ice and snow storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and the like are natural occurrences, and these acts of nature will cut you off.  The electrical grid is so fragile that a tree falling in Ohio will cause a blackout in Toronto.  A storm on the sun can send New York City into darkness.  These outages are usually temporary, although they can last as long as a week, before things get back to normal.  Having a week’s supply of food and water, therefore, would seem to be a prudent thing for everybody.  Everyone should be an “emergency prepper”.

 

The effects of such natural disasters are usually short lived.  Most preppers believe that there is a far greater disaster looming, and they are right.

 

Since the US Federal Reserve Bank was established in 1913, the US dollar has lost roughly 95% of its value.  That’s only about 1% a year and, in the grand scheme of things, not a big deal.

 

The big deal is that under President Obama the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury have gone on a borrowing, printing and spending binge unlike anything ever seen.  If Obama is re-elected in November, the United States will experience an economic collapse within two years.  The dollar will fall steeply in value and inflation will ravish people’s savings and pensions.  The US will become Greece times 100.

 

If Obama is defeated, the new president will face a daunting task.  It is possible that the tipping point has already have been reached.  The crushing debt that has already been incurred might simply be too large to be dealt with by conventional means.

 

The treatment required might create more economic disruption than the society can take.  A return to sane fiscal and monetary policy to avoid a complete collapse will require a restructuring of government at the federal level.  The budget will have to be cut by hundreds of billions.  Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will have to be fired.  Entitlement programs will have to be cut or even eliminated.

View this video and ask yourself if people are prepared for benefits like EBT to be eliminated.

This video depicts the behavior of people waiting for applications to get on a waiting list for benefits.  In other words, they are rioting for the application to get on a waiting list.

Here is more of the same.

These riots happened in America in good times.  Imagine the chaos when things get bad.

If you think this is not the future of urban America, think again.  And prepare.

 

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Israel Iran War Part 3

The USS Enterprise (the real one with a large air group) is due to transit the Suez Canal shortly, en route to the Persian Gulf area.

As noted in this post the Enterprise is about to join two other US fleet carriers on stations.  These three ships, and their attendant task forces, will form the most formidable naval striking force the US has ever assembled in one place in peace time.

The next window for attacking Iran is April 16 to April 28.  Stay tuned and fill up your tank.

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Trouble in Japan

Following its defeat in 1945, Japan became the linchpin of US strategic thinking in Asia. It is also regarded as a shining, if somewhat misguided, example of how exporting capitalism, democracy and American culture results in an Asian copy of western modernity.

And so it has been for 60 plus years.  Recently, though, some natural and man made disasters have befallen Japan.  The confluence of these events threaten the existence of the wealthy, stable Japan the world has come to know.

The tsunami that knocked out the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and the subsequent nuclear and political fallout has put tremendous pressure on two vital sectors of Japan’s economy, food and energy.  Japan’s industrial sector runs on electricity.  Japan has few domestic energy resources.  Domestic hydro accounts for less than 5% of electricity production.  Nuclear power delivers about 25% while imported coal, oil, and natural gas account for the balance.

The Fukushima meltdown last year and the subsequent radiation danger has caused Japan to shut down all but 2 of its 54 commercial reactors.  With 25% of its generating capacity gone Japan has increased its importation of hydrocarbon fuels, and these have greatly increased in price.  As a result, Japan recorded its first trade deficit in over 3 decades.

Because of radiation fears, there is tremendous popular resistance to restarting the nuclear plants.  If they don’t come back online before summer electricity rates, already among the highest in the world, will soar.  Japan will face electricity shortages of between 10% to 20%.  The implications for industry are stark, real, and all negative.

A spike in oil prices, or another natural earthquake or tsunami could doom Japan to several years of recession, or worse.

The news in agriculture is not promising either.  Fallout from the Fukushima reactor has contaminated large portions of Japanese farmland.  Japan’s self sufficiency in food is almost as bad as in energy production.  In 2010, Japan produced only 39% of the calories it’s people consumed.

The balance, 61%, has to be imported.  Importing food and energy requires obtaining foreign exchange.  Foreign exchange can only be obtained by exporting or borrowing.  With higher input prices for energy Japanese industry will be running a distinct disadvantage.  A weaker currency, a debt to GDP ratio approaching 300% (Greece went bankrupt with a 120% ratio), and ever rising energy prices portend a grim future for this island nation.  It might be an earthquake or tsunami away from a true disaster.

 

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Happy Days are Here Again?

Corruption rots a society and a country from within.  A free democratic society inevitably accepts a certain amount of corruption.  However, when that level of corruption reaches a tipping point, basic institutions are threatened, and society itself is at risk.

One indication of government corruption is the issuance of false statistics.  The founders of the United States thought that accurate, timely statistical information was so important that they enshrined the census in the constitution.  Today, sadly, it seems that statistics issued by a supposedly unbiased government agency are cooked to reflect the needs of the party in power.

I refer, specifically, to the “unemployment rate”.  This stat is seen as a key economic indicator and is being trumpeted by the media to prove that the economy is getting better.

The bureaucrats at the BLS have a tough job.  They have to satisfy their political masters with rosy unemployment statistics, and justify the crazy numbers they are coming up with.  They do this in several ways.

Firstly, they redefine those who qualify to be counted as “unemployed”.  Obviously if fewer people are counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate will be lower.  So, we tinker with the definition of those “actively looking for work” down until we get the right number.  Using this method, I could define those “actively looking for work” as people who undertake no less than three job applications a day.  That would get unemployment way down.

Secondly, the “raw” unemployment statistics are subjected to a “seasonal adjustment”.  Depending on what computer model is used, this inflates or deflates the “seasonal” rate by a huge factor.

Finally, you might be shocked to find out that the entire “raw” statistic is actually based on an estimation that is produced by a computer model which estimates births, deaths, immigration, business formation, etc.  There really is no actual count of the unemployed.

Let’s look at another set of government statistics that brings into great question the idea that things are getting better.  Between 2007 and 2012 the population of the US grew from 301 million to about 310 million.  The number of jobs fell from 115 million to a little more than 110 million.

In the last five years there are 10 million more people chasing 5 million fewer jobs.  And things are getting better?

 

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Israel Iran War Part 2

Well, we might have to add America to this headline.

The USN is the only navy in the world to possess and sail a 100,000 ton nuclear powered fleet carrier of the Nimitz class.  The US has 11 of them.  No other nation has a single ship that approaches the size or power of a Nimitz carrier.   Wherever these ships sail, they immediately become the best tactical air force in the vicinity.  They are a major power projection tool, a very formidable force.

Because these carriers are expensive and complicated to operate, only three or four of them are at sea at any one time.  At present seven carriers are either in port or undergoing refits.  That leaves four at sea.  The G.H.W. Bush is undergoing sea trials in the Atlantic.

The other three carriers, the Carl Vinson, the Abraham Lincoln, and the Enterprise are either on station near the Straits of Hormuz or en route.  It is highly unusual, if not historically unprecedented, that 75% of US carriers at sea are concentrated in one area in peace time.  Of course these carriers do not travel alone.  There is a large screening force of submarines, cruisers and destroyers accompanying this force.  In addition, the big deck amphibious carrier Makin Island is at port in Bahrain and it was announced today that the USN is moving four more minesweepers to the gulf region.

There might not be a war brewing in the gulf.  But the United States Navy is absolutely preparing for one.  The Enterprise arrives in a few days.  Stay tuned.

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All is Well–Nothing to See Here

Yesterday, all the tea leaves promised that happy days are here again.  The network news trumpeted enormous retail sales in February.  There are jobs for everybody.  The stock market was up over 200 points.

Let me introduce some reality to the situation.  In 2007, five years ago, the ANNUAL US deficit was $161 billion.  In February, 2012 the MONTHLY US deficit was $229 billion.  If the deficit is not brought under control one of two things will occur.  Taxes will be increased to a point that will destroy all incentive, or, there will be a hyperinflation event in the US.

Despite government denials, inflation is already here.   Cheap Chinese fungi laced garlic and trinkets at Walmart cannot mask the truth.  People see it and feel it at the gas pumps and at the grocery store.

The government claims unemployment is in the 8.5% range.  Non-government sources peg it at anywhere from 9.5% to 15%.  Fewer people believe the economic statistics coming from the US government, with good reason.

The US executive branch of the US government has been taken over by a cabal of communist ideologues.  They simply do not believe in capitalism.  They are on course to bankrupting the United States.  That might be a bold statement, and they will deny it, but it is absolutely true.  They are masking their true motives and policies until after the election.  If Obama is re-elected, you will see a transformation of the US that would not have been believed in the dark old days of 2007 under Bush.  It will not be pretty, and you should position yourself for the fallout.

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Forewarned is Forearmed

Much like an Obama voter, the stock market has risen more on hope and change than on facts and logic.  It seems as if those times are rapidly coming to an end.

This article is just one of many listing the technical factors that point to a market “correction” in the very near future.  It would only take one “crisis” to scare the market into a 10% to 25% drop.  Several are unfolding before our eyes.

1.  There will be a shooting war with Iran this year.  Energy prices will shoot up and any thought of economic expansion will stop.

2.  Greece is bankrupt.  The full extent of this crisis is not yet manifest, but it will be.  Credit will contract worldwide as billions of dollars of wealth simply evaporate.  Banks and individuals will be forced to sell assets to raise cash.  Some of those assets will be stocks.

3.  Even if the Greek situation is somehow contained, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy are lined up right behind.  Once enough people realize that the dominoes are falling and the inevitable cannot be put off any longer, the market will react.

This market has run out of greater fools.  Position yourself financially.  Get out of the stock market while you can.

 

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Cities Under Seige–Part 3

Reuters brings us a report today of two more US cities that are bankrupt in everything but name.

Stockton, California is a bankrupt city in a bankrupt state.  Every objective metric indicates things are not going to get any better.  Eight of the top 10 employers are government entities or medical facilities.  In other words wealth destroying organizations that don’t produce anything.  Real estate has crashed to new lows, even for California.  The demographics print out at 60% hispanic and native American.  The city administration is liberal and doesn’t have a clue.  The city was cited by Forbes as one of the most miserable cities in America, and one of the most crime ridden.

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania is not far behind, but has a couple of mitigating circumstances.  Its demographics are not good.  However, it does have a lot of productive industrial concerns including many food processors.  Since it is the capital of Pennsylvania, chances are that the state government will help support the city as long as it can.  The implications for city residents and taxpayers, however, have to be negative.

The United States is, still, a putative democracy.  Decisions  were made by elected representatives of the people who live in these cities to overspend, overtax, and over promise.  We are witnessing the results of those decisions.  The voters of these cities show no signs of cognition.  There is no realization of the problems.  No effort to make the necessary changes.  In the end, people get the kind of government they deserve.

What does this mean to you?  If you live near these cities, or near other cities facing the same fate, understand that you are living close to a time bomb.  When a city dies slowly the effects can be handled.  When a sick city dies quickly the parasites among us, fed on years  of government largess, become a hungry, angry mob.  Position yourself accordingly.

 

 

 

 

 

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Iran, the Bomb, and You Part 1

One of the reasons people should pay no attention to the traditional media is that is simply does not present the news.  The media spends hours of air time detailing the vagaries of pop culture.  It fawns over elite politicians and their attempts to “connect” with “normal people”.   It totally ignores providing and educating the public with basic facts regarding existential threats to Western civilization.

“Modern” Iran is ruled by a cabal of doomsday islamists whose minds are firmly buried in the 7th century.  It’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a leader of the 1979 American embassy takeover, wants to destroy Israel and the US and is developing nuclear weapons and the systems to deliver them.

The mainstream media would whitewash Ahmadinejad’s rantings and his history as a terrorist.  The Israelis do not.  They take it seriously when a foreign power is threatening their existence while frantically trying to produce the means to carry out their threats.

 

Ahmadinejad has threatened the US and Europe also.  And, even though the media says nothing about it, he may have the means to deliver a knockout blow to western civilization within a few short years.

 

If you monitor the mainstream media, you might not know that Iran has launched another satellite.  This satellite weighs about 110 pounds and over flies the US and Europe virtually every day.  If Iran can couple the ability to launch a satellite with a nuclear warhead small enough to be lifted into orbit it will have obtained a weapon capable of sending an enemy civilization (that’s us) back to a time before electricity.

 

The method would involve exploding a nuclear warhead high in space over the US or Europe.  Such a weapon would not kill people.  But it would send out an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that would literally fry all modern electronics and electrical systems.

 

Imagine our society without electricity or electronics.  No electrical appliances.  No heating or air conditioning.  No vehicular transportation.  No vast farming operations.  No cell phones or even land lines.  No radio, television or internet.  No modern drugs.  No ATM’s.  No food deliveries to cities.  No city water or sewage systems.  No elevators.  A modern society literally sent back to the mid 19th century in an instant.  It is estimated that 90% of the population would simply die of starvation in such a scenario.

 

Iran has already demonstrated its ability to place a payload in orbit over the US and Europe.  It is racing headlong to enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear bomb.  Its intentions are clear enough.  The response of the west to this existential threat is not clear at all.

 

 

 

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Israel Iran War

Common wisdom holds that Israel and Iran will be in a real shooting war very soon.  People forget that these countries have actually been engaging in acts of war for a long time.

Iran has been attacking Israel through surrogate terrorist organs in Gaza and Lebanon for many years.  In the last 24 hours Beersheba, Ashdod, and Ashkelon have been attacked by missiles from Gaza.  The IAF has retaliated with air strikes and the game continues.

In essence here is where the conflict stands.  Iran has ringed Israel with thousands of short range ballistic missiles and unleashes its surrogates to use them when it deems fit to do so.

Israel is waging this war in a different way, with a stiletto rather than a sledgehammer.  It uses brainpower to insert errant computer code into the industrial process Iran is using to enrich uranium.  It liquidates top Iranian nuclear scientists.  It blows up top secret Iranian military installations.  All this to simply slow down Iran’s attempts to secure a nuclear bomb.

Soon, though, Israeli leaders will come to the conclusion that these methods are not enough and stronger measures need to be taken to slow or stop Iran’s march to obtaining a bomb.  A real shooting war is virtually inevitable.  The only question is, when?

When things get hot, there is no doubt who will have the upper hand.  Iran is poking a bear who is in possession of hundreds of nuclear warheads deliverable by IRBM, air drop, or submarine launch.  Who will “win” the war is a foregone conclusion and only dependent on the strength of Israel’s political will.

Future blog posts will address the possible timing of this war and how it will affect people living in various parts of the anglosphere.  Stay tuned.

 

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